Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 12.439504 14.526534 16.809693 19.486629 22.532732 25.884363 29.844476
2024-10-27 9.115170 11.930084 15.319446 19.671933 25.080617 31.546015 39.821175
2024-11-03 7.516120 10.834034 15.162071 21.148855 29.130906 39.311949 53.168642
2024-11-10 6.220232 9.766589 14.728474 22.044789 32.396426 46.330159 66.271594
2024-11-17 5.258003 8.915166 14.360938 22.852118 35.496445 53.312151 79.906611
2024-11-24 4.297101 7.844134 13.448150 22.655659 37.030178 58.146279 90.889636
2024-12-01 3.425048 6.722744 12.241786 21.776711 37.343605 61.121640 99.315904
2024-12-08 2.778415 5.845161 11.265234 21.078795 37.775752 64.204865 108.033009
2024-12-15 2.389512 5.352700 10.852084 21.231648 39.541919 69.434587 120.385965
2024-12-22 2.010709 4.798866 10.232702 20.918792 40.449091 73.304398 130.806048
2024-12-29 1.849880 4.656703 10.354500 21.946165 43.753606 81.343165 148.547336
2025-01-05 1.646406 4.379869 10.166234 22.351745 45.956343 87.648548 163.788186
2025-01-12 1.440123 4.064030 9.870643 22.549995 47.869359 93.731278 179.332586
2025-01-19 1.260075 3.772912 9.584775 22.736594 49.790495 100.005408 195.722034
2025-01-26 1.208768 3.794719 9.988743 24.403909 54.750719 112.153295 223.357575
2025-02-02 1.116413 3.688226 10.083407 25.416185 58.491543 122.307856 248.044216
2025-02-09 1.027502 3.570853 10.132866 26.329686 62.105393 132.464454 273.359933
2025-02-16 0.889382 3.277580 9.705855 26.106476 63.313967 138.077815 290.535411
2025-02-23 0.736409 2.897010 8.990706 25.109945 62.753702 140.163217 301.112478
2025-03-02 0.616207 2.585265 8.397507 24.318342 62.544391 142.899161 313.072258
2025-03-09 0.548285 2.430433 8.204657 24.491697 64.511304 150.182874 334.387189
2025-03-16 0.472178 2.223389 7.826115 24.136783 65.218632 154.886868 350.808569
2025-03-23 0.449533 2.210780 8.016834 25.301935 69.602954 167.620188 384.199489